The Avalanche is here

The Avalanche is here.

Seven years ago, we published An Avalanche is Coming: Higher Education and the Revolution Ahead to provoke discussion about significant trends impacting universities and higher education and help leaders embrace a new era, led by technological innovation. Today Covid-19 has forced 2019-20 school year into a premature closure. In-person gatherings are banned, the next school years looks uncertain, but the show must go on. How universities and providers of higher education services respond will determine their survival in the post-Covid world.

Is the Avalanche here? Is this the moment for accelerated changes in the way that higher education operates? Do student behavior and openness around choice change forever? We offer a set of observations and questions about the changes in the short and long term.

1.) Online learning delivery has arrived, out of necessity. Today, almost every in-person class has been canceled. It is increasingly unlikely that campuses will reopen any earlier than the fall. Universities are scrambling to find ways to deliver teaching and learning online. In the past, online programs were seen as a secondary option to provide flexibility to students, add accessibility for a wider reach, and maybe used as an additional revenue stream, often priced just as high as on-campus options. Approaching online-learning as second-tier and optional will need to change. The online-learning segment has grown, improved, and learned dramatically over the last few years. There are known best practices on how to teach and manage courses online. These insights are often free, open, and accessible to anyone who wants to learn. Here is an example of knowledge sharing from the Learning Innovation team at Duke. Organizations such as Online Learning Research Center have other repositories.

2.) Increase demand from students and parents to evaluate offerings based on cost. Higher Education, particularly in the United States, is expensive, with prices rising faster than inflation. The burden on students to bear the costs of their education has similarly accelerated. Student debt is at an all-time high, $1.5 Trillion, and the stress is beginning to show. So far, elite universities have avoided refunding students and remain posed to keep 2020-21 fees unaltered. Those that have online programs will increasingly need to justify their cost against the myriad of other online offerings. Already the Ivy League has made 450 classes available online for free.

There are other options as well, including Outlier, a new company that has developed university-level courses online that are accredited by the University of Pittsburg and offered for $400/course or similarly Sophia offers low cost, self-paced, offered for credit for a group of institutions. No doubt, students will feel under financial pressure and be looking at their education choices as an investment. This moment may prove pivotal for students looking hard at the cost side of the equation on value for money.

3.) Increasing scrutiny from students on the quality of online courses.

With a few clicks, students can now browse any university course catalog in the world. What will they find? What will catch their eye? Strong content and syllabus, high-quality materials - sometimes high production quality videos, relevant course supporting readings, videos, audio recordings. Students have high expectations when it comes to the quality of online experiences. If they are going to watch a video of a lecture, it could be (and should be) the best delivery of that material possible. Universities should feel pressure. They are now competing on an open playing field. Practice problems will need to be online, interactive, and bug-free. Now, with all learning online, students will become more discerning of quality, and they will be able to compare their experience with all of their peers easily online.

4.) Increase focus toward the future job market and a path to a rewarding career

The globe is facing massive economic disruption, and students will need to demonstrate and market their skills to employers. There are online resources that can help students navigate available opportunities and make the transition to the workplace. Universities that can mentor and guide students, act as their connection, and the on-ramp to working will set themselves apart. That is the return on investment students will be using to evaluate their higher education choices. If they can conduct a better search or navigate the internet for the best online materials, they will do so. The ease of exploration and luring user experience will be a significant contributing factor for students when they assess the value that they are receiving from more traditional institutions.

5.) Covid-19 is testing the strength of students emotional and mental health. Universities can help students to be always learning and focus on mastery of the fundamentals: critical thinking, resiliency, and creativity.

Students are in the driver's seat, their choices matter. It is on them, with the potential help of the other adults in their life, to navigate the challenges that life brings, including how to gain knowledge, skills, and experience. Students of today need to approach an uncertain future with the skills to make well-reasoned decisions and sound judgments. We are all life-long learners. From university presidents to faculty to students - everyone will need to learn how to manage their internal mental states and how to maintain healthy emotional well-being. 21st-century skills that build resiliency in the face of challenges are fundamental to success. The School of Life is one example of online and remote materials that can enlighten, challenge, and shape our perception of the world. Universities that can counsel and mentor their students to adopt mindfulness techniques will leave them more robust and better able to navigate their careers and personals lives. 

The digital revolution was already upon us. Covid-19 merely provided a breaking point for change. Universities that have been preparing for the Avalanche will now need to move fast and implement well. Those that have avoided making changes will need to move more quickly. These are extraordinary times that will change the behavior and mindset of a generation of learners. Those that see the opportunity will flourish as the world rebuilds for the new world.